IndiaversusSouth Africa

15 Nov 2024 · T20

Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 135 runs

India20.0 overs283/1 South Africa18.2 overs148/10 Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

78%India22%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,813 vs 1,586 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 78%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

India's chances ranged from 78% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 22%).

Biggest swings

1.2: G Coetzee to SV Samson, six by SV Samson. India up from 78% to 81%.
1.4: G Coetzee to SV Samson, four by SV Samson. India up from 81% to 84%.
2.2: M Jansen to Abhishek Sharma, 2 runs to Abhishek Sharma. India up from 82% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India283/1 South Africa148/10

Innings 1

India

283/120.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsonnot out 6 fours · 9 sixes	not out	109*	56	6	9	194.64
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Lutho Sipamla 2 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Lutho Sipamla	36	18	2	4	200.00
Tilak Varmanot out 9 fours · 10 sixes	not out	120*	47	9	10	255.32
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 17 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	12	16/0
3	14	30/0
4	14	44/0
5	24	68/0
6	5	73/1
7	8	81/1
8	8	89/1
9	19	108/1
10	21	129/1
11	13	142/1
12	20	162/1
13	15	177/1
14	22	199/1
15	20	219/1
16	11	230/1
17	10	240/1
18	11	251/1
19	19	270/1
20	13	283/1

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.