IrelandversusPakistan

14 May 2024 · T20

Clontarf Cricket Club Ground, Dublin · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 6 wickets

Ireland20.0 overs178/7 Pakistan17.0 overs181/4 Clontarf Cricket Club Ground, Dublin ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

48%Ireland52%Pakistan

Why

Ireland are playing at home in Ireland
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Ireland (1,537 vs 1,509 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 2 and Ireland won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 44%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (Pakistan: 24% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.4: Shaheen Shah Afridi to GR Adair, GR Adair out. Pakistan up from 53% to 64%.
10.5: Abbas Afridi to A Balbirnie, A Balbirnie out. Pakistan up from 29% to 36%.
2nd inns 2.3: MR Adair to Saim Ayub, Saim Ayub out. Ireland up from 49% to 61%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland178/7 Pakistan181/4

Innings 1

Ireland

178/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Andrew Balbirniecaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Abbas Afridi 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Abbas Afridi	35	26	2	3	134.62
Ross Adairbowled · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Shaheen Afridi	7	8	0	1	87.50
Lorcan Tuckercaught · Saim Ayub · Imad Wasim 13 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Saim Ayub · b Imad Wasim	73	41	13	1	178.05
Harry Tectornot out 2 fours · 1 sixes	not out	30*	20	2	1	150.00
Neil Rockcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Shaheen Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	3	3.50	0
Mohammad Amir0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	3
Hasan Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	42	0	14.00	0
Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	2	10.75	0
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	0
Imad Wasim0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	7	15/0
3	1	16/1
4	16	32/1
5	10	42/1
6	8	50/1
7	14	64/1
8	5	69/1
9	13	82/1
10	13	95/1
11	11	106/2
12	9	115/2
13	14	129/2
14	6	135/3
15	2	137/4
16	10	147/4
17	5	152/5
18	12	164/6
19	3	167/7
20	11	178/7

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