CameroonversusMalawi

6 Jun 2025 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Malawi won by 6 wickets

Cameroon19.0 overs72/10 Malawi13.0 overs73/4 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malawi more likely to win

43%Cameroon57%Malawi

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Malawi won 2 and Cameroon won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Cameroon rate stronger than Malawi (1,327 vs 1,317 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Cameroon started on 41%; Cameroon batted first.

Cameroon’s chance of winning (%) · Malawi is the rest

Cameroon's chances ranged from 0% to 42% during the match (Malawi: 58% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: E Kabwere to BMA Mbida, BMA Mbida out. Malawi up from 60% to 66%.
11.1: LL Dimba to ME Bessala, ME Bessala out. Malawi up from 68% to 75%.
18.6: KM Chingaipe to CSN Mbelel, CSN Mbelel out. Malawi up from 84% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Cameroon72/10 Malawi73/4

Innings 1

Cameroon

72/1019.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cameroon batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
MLN Sissakobowled · Sugeni Kananji 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sugeni Kananji	3	10	0	0	30.00
BMA Mbidabowled · Eva Kabwere 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Eva Kabwere	2	4	0	0	50.00
B Walumacaught · LL Dimba · Eva Kabwere 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LL Dimba · b Eva Kabwere	3	8	0	0	37.50
MSN Ekanicaught · LL Dimba · C Bwanali 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LL Dimba · b C Bwanali	28	45	2	0	62.22
JAN Ngonobowled · LL Dimba 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b LL Dimba	2	10	0	0	20.00
ME Bessalacaught · Eva Kabwere · LL Dimba3 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sugeni Kananji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	1
Eva Kabwere0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	7	2	2.33	0
Ketrina Chingaipe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	1	5.00	0
LL Dimba1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	2	3.50	0
L Malino1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	1	4.00	4
C Bwanali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	2	3.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	3	4/1
3	3	7/2
4	3	10/2
5	7	17/2
6	1	18/3
7	1	19/3
8	5	24/4
9	12	36/4
10	6	42/4
11	7	49/4
12	0	49/5
13	7	56/5
14	4	60/5
15	0	60/6
16	3	63/6
17	2	65/6
18	4	69/8
19	3	72/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.