**Kingsmead, Durban**
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SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusPaarl Royals

17 Jan 2026 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 58 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs189/7 Paarl Royals20.0 overs131/9 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 45%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 25% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

0.2: BC Fortuin to SP Narine, SP Narine out. Paarl Royals up from 50% to 65%.
1.1: GC Viljoen to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. Paarl Royals up from 60% to 72%.
2nd inns 3.6: SP Narine to K Verreynne, K Verreynne out. Durban's Super Giants up from 57% to 69%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Durban's Super Giants189/7 Paarl Royals131/9

Innings 1