Trinbago Knight RidersversusSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots

31 Aug 2024 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Trinbago Knight Riders won by 44 runs

Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs250/4 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs206/8 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Trinbago Knight Riders started on 52%; Trinbago Knight Riders batted first.

Trinbago Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · St Kitts and Nevis Patriots is the rest

Trinbago Knight Riders's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (St Kitts and Nevis Patriots: 0% to 51%).

Biggest swings

3.6: RD John to SP Narine, SP Narine out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 25% to 35%.
4.4: A Nortje to JJ Roy, JJ Roy out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 31% to 40%.
7.5: T Shamsi to SD Parris, SD Parris out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 22% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Trinbago Knight Riders250/4 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots206/8

Innings 1