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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
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Pakistan tour of Bangladesh · 2025/26 · Men
15 Mar 2026 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 42%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassanbowled · Shaheen Afridi 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 36 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 65.45 |
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Shaheen Afridi · Abrar Ahmed 6 fours · 7 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Abrar Ahmed | 107 | 107 | 6 | 7 | 100.00 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantolbw · Haris Rauf3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Haris Rauf | 27 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 79.41 |
 Litton Dascaught · Ghazi Ghori · Haris Rauf1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ghazi Ghori · b Haris Rauf | 41 | 51 | 1 | 1 | 80.39 |
 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 41% to 98% during the match (Pakistan: 2% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 48* |
| 44 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 109.09 |
 Rishad Hossainbowled · Haris Rauf0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haris Rauf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Afif Hossainnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 3 | 5.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 2 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Saad Masood0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 6.88 | 7 | 0 |
| Maaz Sadaqat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-105 (Saif Hassan, 18.1) · 2-158 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 29.2) · 3-194 (Tanzid Hasan, 36.2) · 4-262 (Litton Das, 46.3) · 5-262 (Rishad Hossain, 46.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 41/0 |
| 9 | 8 | 49/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 50/0 |
| 11 | 11 | 61/0 |
| 12 | 15 | 76/0 |
| 13 | 1 | 77/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 81/0 |
| 15 | 3 | 84/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 87/0 |
| 17 | 9 | 96/0 |
| 18 | 9 | 105/0 |
| 19 | 4 | 109/1 |
| 20 | 10 | 119/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 123/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 129/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 131/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 133/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 138/1 |
| 26 | 3 | 141/1 |
| 27 | 6 | 147/1 |
| 28 | 6 | 153/1 |
| 29 | 5 | 158/1 |
| 30 | 2 | 160/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 164/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 168/2 |
| 33 | 9 | 177/2 |
| 34 | 2 | 179/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 185/2 |
| 36 | 9 | 194/2 |
| 37 | 3 | 197/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 205/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 211/3 |
| 40 | 2 | 213/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 218/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 227/3 |
| 43 | 4 | 231/3 |
| 44 | 12 | 243/3 |
| 45 | 8 | 251/3 |
| 46 | 9 | 260/3 |
| 47 | 4 | 264/5 |
| 48 | 13 | 277/5 |
| 49 | 5 | 282/5 |
| 50 | 8 | 290/5 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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