Royal Challengers BengaluruversusRajasthan Royals

22 May 2024 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 4 wickets

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs172/8 Rajasthan Royals19.0 overs174/6 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 46%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Rajasthan Royals is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 1% to 60% during the match (Rajasthan Royals: 40% to 99%).

Biggest swings

4.4: TA Boult to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Rajasthan Royals up from 42% to 52%.
2nd inns 5.3: LH Ferguson to T Kohler-Cadmore, T Kohler-Cadmore out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 26% to 37%.
2nd inns 13.1: C Green to R Parag, Dhruv Jurel out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 24% to 36%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru172/8 Rajasthan Royals174/6

Innings 1