ScotlandversusSri Lanka

27 Apr 2024 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 10 wickets

Scotland18.1 overs94/10 Sri Lanka10.1 overs95/0 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

33%Scotland67%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Scotland (1,607 vs 1,521 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 1 and Scotland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 30%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Sri Lanka: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: SIP Fernando to DEM Carter, DEM Carter out. Sri Lanka up from 70% to 77%.
9.1: SIP Fernando to SJ Bryce, SJ Bryce out. Sri Lanka up from 67% to 73%.
9.3: SIP Fernando to PA Chatterji, PA Chatterji out. Sri Lanka up from 74% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland94/10 Sri Lanka95/0

Innings 1

Scotland

94/1018.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Darcey Cartercaught · Kavisha Dilhari · Inoshi Priyadharshani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kavisha Dilhari · b Inoshi Priyadharshani	0	3	0	0	0.00
Saskia Horleycaught and bowled · Achini Kulasuriya 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Achini Kulasuriya	7	12	1	0	58.33
Kathryn Brycebowled · Sugandika Kumari 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sugandika Kumari	22	19	5	0	115.79
Sarah Brycecaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Inoshi Priyadharshani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Inoshi Priyadharshani	8	13	0	0	61.54
Ailsa Listercaught · Chamari Atapattu · Kavisha Dilhari 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chamari Atapattu · b Kavisha Dilhari	13	13	2

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Inoshi Priyadharshani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	11	3	2.75	0
Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	13	0	4.33	0
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	2	6.75	3
Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	15	1	7.50	1
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	0	13	4	4.11	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	8	9/1
3	7	16/1
4	2	18/1
5	10	28/2
6	4	32/3
7	5	37/3
8	11	48/3
9	3	51/3
10	1	52/5
11	4	56/5
12	5	61/5
13	4	65/6
14	2	67/6
15	4	71/6
16	8	79/6
17	5	84/8
18	10	94/9
19	0	94/10

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