Hobart HurricanesversusAdelaide Strikers

9 Jan 2024 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Adelaide Strikers won by 5 wickets

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs165/7 Adelaide Strikers19.2 overs168/5 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 49%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Adelaide Strikers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Adelaide Strikers: 47% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.1: DA Payne to CP Jewell, CP Jewell out. Adelaide Strikers up from 48% to 60%.
3.3: J Overton to M Wright, M Wright out. Adelaide Strikers up from 52% to 64%.
6.2: CJ Boyce to CJ Anderson, CJ Anderson out. Adelaide Strikers up from 74% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes165/7 Adelaide Strikers168/5

Innings 1