GloucestershireversusEssex

4 Jul 2025 · T20

The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 13 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs184/7 Essex19.3 overs171/10 The County Ground, Chelmsford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 51%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Essex is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 26% to 97% during the match (Essex: 3% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.6: BG Charlesworth to PI Walter, PI Walter out. Gloucestershire up from 62% to 82%.
2nd inns 15.3: J Shaw to MJJ Critchley, MJJ Critchley out. Gloucestershire up from 30% to 52%.
2nd inns 16.5: DA Payne to SR Harmer, SR Harmer out. Gloucestershire up from 56% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire184/7 Essex171/10

Innings 1