Sri LankaversusIndia

26 Dec 2025 · T20

Greenfield International Stadium, Thiruvananthapuram · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 8 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs112/7 India13.2 overs115/2 Greenfield International Stadium, Thiruvananthapuram ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

18%Sri Lanka82%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,652 vs 1,508 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 16%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 22% during the match (India: 78% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.3: DB Sharma to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. India up from 80% to 86%.
5.3: Renuka Singh to GWHM Perera, GWHM Perera out. India up from 85% to 89%.
5.6: Renuka Singh to H Madavi, H Madavi out. India up from 89% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka112/7 India115/2

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

112/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Hasini Pereracaught · Deepti Sharma · Renuka Singh 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Deepti Sharma · b Renuka Singh	25	18	5	0	138.89
Chamari Atapattucaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Deepti Sharma	3	12	0	0	25.00
Harshitha Madavicaught and bowled · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Renuka Singh	2	4	0	0	50.00
Imesha Dulanicaught · Jemimah Rodrigues · Renuka Singh 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jemimah Rodrigues

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Renuka Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	21	4	5.25	0
Kranti Goud0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	0	5.50	2
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	3	4.50	0
Vaishnavi Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	0	4.67	0
Amanjot Kaur0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	1
Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	2	14/0
3	6	20/0
4	5	25/0
5	2	27/1
6	5	32/3
7	2	34/3
8	2	36/3
9	4	40/3
10	5	45/4
11	7	52/4
12	11	63/4
13	14	77/4
14	8	85/5
15	5	90/5
16	0	90/6
17	6	96/6
18	2	98/7
19	7	105/7
20	7	112/7

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