West IndiesversusIndia

14 Oct 2026 · T20

Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 24 runs

West Indies20.0 overs247/3 India19.3 overs223/9 Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

21%West Indies79%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than West Indies (1,796 vs 1,633 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and West Indies won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 18%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 17% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 83%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.1: KMA Paul to SV Samson, SV Samson out. West Indies up from 43% to 58%.
2nd inns 4.4: KMA Paul to Ishan Kishan, Ishan Kishan out. West Indies up from 53% to 68%.
2nd inns 16.6: R Shepherd to Tilak Varma, Tilak Varma out. West Indies up from 73% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies247/3 India223/9

Innings 1

West Indies

247/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shai Hopenot out 4 fours · 9 sixes	not out	102*	50	4	9	204.00
J Andrewlbw · Axar Patel 2 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Axar Patel	21	16	2	1	131.25
Shimron Hetmyercaught and bowled · Prince Yadav 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught and bowled · b Prince Yadav	33	12	4	2	275.00
Rovman Powellcaught · Sanju Samson · Arshdeep Singh 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sanju Samson · b Arshdeep Singh	24	17	2	1	141.18
Sherfane Rutherfordnot out4 fours · 3 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Mayank Yadav0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	52	0	13.00	6	1
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	52	1	13.00	6	0
Prince Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	1	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	1	11.25	0	0
Naman Dhir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	19	0	19.00	0	0
Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	39	0	13.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	17	20/0
3	20	40/0
4	12	52/0
5	8	60/1
6	19	79/1
7	11	90/1
8	19	109/1
9	5	114/2
10	4	118/2
11	11	129/2
12	22	151/2
13	5	156/3
14	12	168/3
15	9	177/3
16	8	185/3
17	22	207/3
18	11	218/3
19	10	228/3
20	19	247/3

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