Chittagong KingsversusDhaka Capitals

22 Jan 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Dhaka Capitals won by 8 wickets

Chittagong Kings20.0 overs148/6 Dhaka Capitals18.1 overs149/2 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chittagong Kings started on 57%; Chittagong Kings batted first.

Chittagong Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Dhaka Capitals is the rest

Chittagong Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 63% during the match (Dhaka Capitals: 37% to 100%).

Biggest swings

7.2: Mosaddek Hossain to Zubaid Akbari, Zubaid Akbari out. Dhaka Capitals up from 45% to 54%.
12.3: Nazmul Islam to G Clark, G Clark out. Dhaka Capitals up from 38% to 45%.
13.4: Mosaddek Hossain to Naeem Islam, Naeem Islam out. Dhaka Capitals up from 51% to 57%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chittagong Kings148/6 Dhaka Capitals149/2

Innings 1