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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
11 Nov 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Oman more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Oman started on 52%; Oman batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR Odedaralbw · Kyle Klein 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kyle Klein | 41 | 70 | 5 | 0 | 58.57 |
| Jatinder Singhstumped · Scott Edwards · Roelof van der Merwe 6 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Scott Edwards · b Roelof van der Merwe | 59 | 89 | 6 | 0 | 66.29 |
| K Sonavalecaught · Max O'Dowd · Roelof van der Merwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Roelof van der Merwe | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aamir Kaleemcaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Colin Ackermann 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Colin Ackermann | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Hammad Mirzabowled · Roelof van der Merwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Roelof van der Merwe | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
Oman's chances ranged from 4% to 92% during the match (Netherlands: 9% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Mohammad Nadeemlbw · Colin Ackermann 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| lbw · b Colin Ackermann |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Bukkapatnam Siddharthlbw · Colin Ackermann 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Colin Ackermann | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Shakeel Ahmedrun out · Scott Edwards, Bas de Leede · Aryan Dutt 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Scott Edwards, Bas de Leede | 2 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 5.56 |
|---|
| Samay Shrivastavabowled · Colin Ackermann 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Colin Ackermann | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 23.08 |
|---|
| Jay Odedranot out 0 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 20* | 22 | 0 | 3 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Muzahir Razacaught · Max O'Dowd · Kyle Klein 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Kyle Klein | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 142.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Klein2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 2 | 24 | 2 | 3.79 | 2 | 0 |
 Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 3.43 | 1 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 2.86 | 0 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Max O'Dowd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Colin Ackermann5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 2.44 | 0 | 0 |
1-94 (AR Odedara, 23.4) · 2-95 (K Sonavale, 25.0) · 3-106 (Aamir Kaleem, 27.2) · 4-106 (Jatinder Singh, 28.3) · 5-107 (Mohammad Nadeem, 29.1) · 6-109 (Hammad Mirza, 30.3) · 7-113 (Bukkapatnam Siddharth, 33.1) · 8-125 (Samay Shrivastava, 37.3) · 9-125 (Shakeel Ahmed, 41.0) · 10-155 (Muzahir Raza, 44.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 15/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 20/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 22/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 31/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 34/0 |
| 11 | 1 | 35/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 36/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 43/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 50/0 |
| 15 | 8 | 58/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 61/0 |
| 17 | 3 | 64/0 |
| 18 | 5 | 69/0 |
| 19 | 2 | 71/0 |
| 20 | 2 | 73/0 |
| 21 | 5 | 78/0 |
| 22 | 5 | 83/0 |
| 23 | 9 | 92/0 |
| 24 | 2 | 94/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 95/2 |
| 26 | 8 | 103/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 106/2 |
| 28 | 0 | 106/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 107/4 |
| 30 | 0 | 107/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 109/6 |
| 32 | 1 | 110/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 113/6 |
| 34 | 0 | 113/7 |
| 35 | 0 | 113/7 |
| 36 | 5 | 118/7 |
| 37 | 3 | 121/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 125/8 |
| 39 | 0 | 125/8 |
| 40 | 0 | 125/8 |
| 41 | 0 | 125/9 |
| 42 | 8 | 133/9 |
| 43 | 6 | 139/9 |
| 44 | 12 | 151/9 |
| 45 | 4 | 155/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
