African Games · 2023/24 · Men

UgandaversusKenya

17 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Uganda won by 72 runs

Uganda20.0 overs169/7 Kenya16.4 overs97/10 Achimota Senior Secondary School B Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

86%Uganda14%Kenya

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Kenya (1,763 vs 1,512 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 7 and Kenya won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 85%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

2.4: LN Oluoch to R Lutaaya, R Lutaaya out. Kenya up from 16% to 23%.
2nd inns 1.3: C Kyewuta to N Mugabe, N Mugabe out. Uganda up from 83% to 88%.
2nd inns 11.4: Bilal Hassun to RR Patel, RR Patel out. Uganda up from 87% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda169/7 Kenya97/10

Innings 1

Uganda

169/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Uganda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
RG Mukasacaught · Emmanuel Bundi · Lucas Oluoch 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Emmanuel Bundi · b Lucas Oluoch	59	45	5	2	131.11
Simon Ssesazibowled · Lucas Oluoch 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lucas Oluoch	9	9	2	0	100.00
R Lutaayacaught · Peter Langat · Lucas Oluoch 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Peter Langat · b Lucas Oluoch	4	2	1	0	200.00
Kenneth Waiswacaught · Emmanuel Bundi · Shem Ngoche 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Emmanuel Bundi · b Shem Ngoche	25	24	4	0	104.17
Dinesh Nakranibowled · Emmanuel Bundi 3 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Emmanuel Bundi	43	23	3	3	186.96

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	5	5.00	0	0
Emmanuel Bundi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	0	0
Peter Langat0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	43	0	10.75	1	1
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0	0
Vishil Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	0	0
Rakep Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	0	11.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	10	15/0
3	4	19/2
4	11	30/2
5	7	37/2
6	5	42/2
7	4	46/2
8	10	56/2
9	1	57/2
10	7	64/2
11	4	68/3
12	12	80/3
13	15	95/3
14	9	104/3
15	11	115/3
16	14	129/3
17	5	134/6
18	11	145/7
19	6	151/7
20	18	169/7

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.