South KoreaversusCook Islands

8 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Cook Islands won by 9 wickets

South Korea16.2 overs47/10 Cook Islands4.4 overs49/1 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Cook Islands more likely to win

40%South Korea60%Cook Islands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Cook Islands rate stronger than South Korea (1,399 vs 1,331 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Korea started on 37%; South Korea batted first.

South Korea’s chance of winning (%) · Cook Islands is the rest

South Korea's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Cook Islands: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: HB Dickson to BI Dilruksha, BI Dilruksha out. Cook Islands up from 63% to 73%.
1.4: JL Tutty to DVD Madampage, DVD Madampage out. Cook Islands up from 74% to 82%.
4.2: OE Taylor to HMHE Parsons, HMHE Parsons out. Cook Islands up from 79% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Korea47/10 Cook Islands49/1

Innings 1

South Korea

47/1016.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Korea batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Daham Madampagecaught · Q Stephens · JL Tutty 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Q Stephens · b JL Tutty	1	5	0	0	20.00
Balage Dilrukshacaught · J Pickering · HB Dickson 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Pickering · b HB Dickson	0	6	0	0	0.00
Sageer Ahmadcaught · Q Stephens · OE Taylor 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Q Stephens · b OE Taylor	20	30	2	0	66.67
HMHE Parsonscaught · HB Dickson · OE Taylor 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · HB Dickson · b OE Taylor	4	7	0	0	57.14
Jun Hyunwoocaught · C Dickson · JL Tutty 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Dickson · b JL Tutty	0	9	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
HB Dickson0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	13	1	4.33	4	1
JL Tutty0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	2	3.33	2	0
OE Taylor1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	8	2	2.67	0	0
Q Stephens0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	4	3	1.33	0	0
C Dickson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.2	0	4	2	1.71	0	0
A Parima0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	0	3.50	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	3	6/2
3	7	13/2
4	6	19/2
5	0	19/3
6	1	20/4
7	4	24/4
8	1	25/6
9	2	27/7
10	3	30/7
11	2	32/7
12	4	36/7
13	3	39/7
14	2	41/7
15	4	45/8
16	1	46/9
17	1	47/10

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