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Photo: Krish Dulal
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United Arab Emirates tour of Nepal · 2026 · Men
21 Apr 2026 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 38%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Nepal: 60% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waseem Muhammadlbw · H Dhami 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b H Dhami | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Adeeb Usmanilbw · Sandeep Lamichhane 2 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 30 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 136.36 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lokesh Bam · b Nandan Yadav | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b H Dhami | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Akshdeep Nathnot out3 fours · 4 sixes |
| not out |
| 53* |
| 42 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 126.19 |
| Sohaib Khancaught · H Dhami · Shahab Alam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · H Dhami · b Shahab Alam | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nilansh Keswanirun out · Dipendra Singh Airee, Lokesh Bam · Shahab Alam 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dipendra Singh Airee, Lokesh Bam | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Arfancaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Sandeep Lamichhane 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 32 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Khuzaima Tanveercaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Zuhaib Zubairnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H Dhami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 11.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Shahab Alam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 | |
| Santosh Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Waseem Muhammad, 0.1) · 2-15 (Alishan Sharafu, 1.4) · 3-20 (Harpreet Singh, 2.2) · 4-47 (Adeeb Usmani, 6.3) · 5-48 (Sohaib Khan, 7.3) · 6-48 (Nilansh Keswani, 7.5) · 7-112 (Muhammad Arfan, 18.2) · 8-112 (Khuzaima Tanveer, 18.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 12 | 20/2 |
| 3 | 3 | 23/3 |
| 4 | 6 | 29/3 |
| 5 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 6 | 17 | 47/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 47/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 48/6 |
| 9 | 2 | 50/6 |
| 10 | 11 | 61/6 |
| 11 | 1 | 62/6 |
| 12 | 11 | 73/6 |
| 13 | 6 | 79/6 |
| 14 | 1 | 80/6 |
| 15 | 9 | 89/6 |
| 16 | 3 | 92/6 |
| 17 | 11 | 103/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 112/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 113/8 |
| 20 | 15 | 128/8 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Harpreet Singh: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.