GermanyversusAustria

2 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Austria won by 7 wickets

Germany20.0 overs211/9 Austria15.5 overs212/3 Bayer Uerdingen Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Germany47%Austria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Germany (1,637 vs 1,562 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 6 and Austria won 2
Germany are playing at home in Germany

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Germany started on 52%; Germany batted first.

Germany’s chance of winning (%) · Austria is the rest

Germany's chances ranged from 0% to 89% during the match (Austria: 11% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Aqib Iqbal to B Kohler-Cadmore, B Kohler-Cadmore out. Austria up from 47% to 63%.
0.5: Aqib Iqbal to Shahid Afridi, Shahid Afridi out. Austria up from 58% to 70%.
2nd inns 11.2: Musaddiq Ahmed to Aqib Iqbal, six by Aqib Iqbal. Austria up from 56% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Germany211/9 Austria212/3

Innings 1

Germany

211/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Germany batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
B Kohler-Cadmorecaught · Bilal Zalmai · Aqib Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Bilal Zalmai · b Aqib Iqbal	0	1	0	0	0.00
Musadiq Ahmedcaught · Zeshan Arif · Zeeshan Goraya 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Zeshan Arif · b Zeeshan Goraya	18	11	2	1	163.64
Shahid Afridi (2)caught · Karanbir Singh · Aqib Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Karanbir Singh · b Aqib Iqbal	3	3	0	0	100.00
Harmanjot Singhcaught · Bilal Zalmai · Waqar Zalmai 10 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bilal Zalmai · b Waqar Zalmai	66	39	10	1	169.23
Fayaz Khanstumped · Amar Naeem · Bilal Zalmai 3 fours · 4 sixes	stumped · Amar Naeem · b Bilal Zalmai	41	15	3	4	273.33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aqib Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	0
Zeeshan Goraya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	45	1	15.00	1
Bilal Zalmai0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	2	8.00	3
Baseer Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	1
Waqar Zalmai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	35	3	11.67	0
Irfan Safi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/2
2	9	17/2
3	12	29/2
4	13	42/3
5	12	54/3
6	23	77/3
7	7	84/3
8	8	92/3
9	7	99/4
10	4	103/4
11	16	119/4
12	13	132/4
13	2	134/5
14	8	142/5
15	13	155/5
16	13	168/6
17	12	180/7
18	5	185/7
19	10	195/9
20	16	211/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.