NorthamptonshireversusHampshire

18 Jul 2026 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 14 runs

Northamptonshire19.5 overs169/10 Hampshire19.2 overs155/10 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 52%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Hampshire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 21% to 97% during the match (Hampshire: 3% to 79%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.5: JJG Sales to HWR Cartwright, HWR Cartwright out. Northamptonshire up from 53% to 76%.
2nd inns 18.3: LA Procter to JK Fuller, JK Fuller out. Northamptonshire up from 30% to 56%.
2nd inns 18.5: LA Procter to SW Currie, SW Currie out. Northamptonshire up from 56% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire169/10 Hampshire155/10

Innings 1