ZimbabweversusSouth Africa

1 Mar 2026 · T20

Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 5 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs153/7 South Africa17.5 overs154/5 Arun Jaitley Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

23%Zimbabwe77%South Africa

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and Zimbabwe won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,705 vs 1,618 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 22%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 29% during the match (South Africa: 71% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: KT Maphaka to T Marumani, T Marumani out. South Africa up from 72% to 81%.
2nd inns 2.5: Sikandar Raza to AK Markram, AK Markram out. Zimbabwe up from 15% to 26%.
2nd inns 5.5: B Evans to RD Rickelton, RD Rickelton out. Zimbabwe up from 14% to 23%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe153/7 South Africa154/5

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

153/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tadiwanashe Marumanibowled · Kwena Maphaka 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kwena Maphaka	7	7	1	0	100.00
Brian Bennettcaught · Aiden Markram · Anrich Nortje 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Aiden Markram · b Anrich Nortje	15	13	1	1	115.38
Dion Myerscaught · Dewald Brevis · George Linde 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dewald Brevis · b George Linde	11	16	1	0	68.75
Sikandar Razacaught · David Miller · Kwena Maphaka 8 fours · 4 sixes	caught · David Miller · b Kwena Maphaka	73	43	8	4	169.77
Ryan Burllbw · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
George Linde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	1	7.33	0	0
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	1	0
Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1	1
Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1	0
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	0	0
Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	5	18/1
3	6	24/1
4	4	28/1
5	1	29/2
6	16	45/2
7	6	51/2
8	15	66/2
9	3	69/3
10	11	80/3
11	4	84/4
12	4	88/5
13	6	94/5
14	8	102/5
15	8	110/5
16	10	120/5
17	6	126/6
18	6	132/6
19	11	143/6
20	10	153/7

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