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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
10 Oct 2025 · ODI
Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 57%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batesrun out · Nigar Sultana, Sumaiya Akter · Rabeya Khan6 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nigar Sultana, Sumaiya Akter | 29 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 87.88 |
| Georgia Plimmerstumped · Nigar Sultana · Rabeya Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Rabeya Khan | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
 Amelia Kerrbowled · Rabeya Khan0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rabeya Khan | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
 Sophie Devinebowled · Nishita Akter Nishi2 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Nishita Akter Nishi | 63 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 85 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 74.12 |
| Brooke Hallidaycaught · Nigar Sultana · Fahima Khatun 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Fahima Khatun | 69 | 104 | 5 | 1 | 66.35 |
|---|
 Maddy Greenstumped · Nigar Sultana · Rabeya Khan3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Rabeya Khan | 25 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 89.29 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazebowled · Marufa Akter 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marufa Akter | 12 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 92.31 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrrun out · Rabeya Khan, Marufa Akter · Rabeya Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rabeya Khan, Marufa Akter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Rosemary Mairstumped · Nigar Sultana · Nahida Akter 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Nahida Akter | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Lea Tahuhunot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 12* | 4 | 1 | 1 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Eden Carsonnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 8.29 | 1 | 1 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Nishita Akter Nishi0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 4.70 | 1 | 1 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 4.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-35 (Georgia Plimmer, 8.2) · 2-35 (Suzie Bates, 8.4) · 3-38 (Amelia Kerr, 11.0) · 4-150 (Brooke Halliday, 38.3) · 5-179 (Sophie Devine, 43.4) · 6-202 (Maddy Green, 47.2) · 7-202 (Jess Kerr, 47.3) · 8-210 (Rosemary Mair, 48.5) · 9-222 (Izzy Gaze, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 33/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 35/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 35/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 38/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 40/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 42/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 45/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 49/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 52/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 57/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 61/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 63/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 70/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 71/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 77/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 79/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 82/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 84/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 88/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 92/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 96/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 98/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 104/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 107/3 |
| 32 | 5 | 112/3 |
| 33 | 9 | 121/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 125/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 130/3 |
| 36 | 2 | 132/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 136/3 |
| 38 | 10 | 146/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 150/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 153/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 158/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 161/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 165/4 |
| 44 | 16 | 181/5 |
| 45 | 10 | 191/5 |
| 46 | 3 | 194/5 |
| 47 | 4 | 198/5 |
| 48 | 6 | 204/7 |
| 49 | 7 | 211/8 |
| 50 | 16 | 227/9 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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