IndiaversusEngland

5 Mar 2026 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 7 runs

India20.0 overs253/7 England20.0 overs246/7 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

70%India30%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than England (1,868 vs 1,816 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and England won 3
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 67%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

India's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 35%).

Biggest swings

1.6: WG Jacks to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. England up from 23% to 35%.
2nd inns 16.5: Arshdeep Singh to JG Bethell, six by JG Bethell. England up from 6% to 12%.
2nd inns 18.1: HH Pandya to JG Bethell, six by JG Bethell. England up from 6% to 11%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India253/7 England246/7

Innings 1

India

253/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsoncaught · Philip Salt · Will Jacks 8 fours · 7 sixes	caught · Philip Salt · b Will Jacks	89	42	8	7	211.90
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Philip Salt · Will Jacks 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Philip Salt · b Will Jacks	9	7	2	0	128.57
Ishan Kishancaught · Will Jacks · Adil Rashid 4 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Will Jacks · b Adil Rashid	39	18	4	2	216.67
Shivam Duberun out · Harry Brook · Sam Curran 1 fours · 4 sixes	run out · Harry Brook	43	25

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	61	1	15.25	2
Will Jacks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	1
Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	36	0	12.00	1
Sam Curran0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	53	0	13.25	4
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	2	10.25	0
Liam Dawson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	19	0	19.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	12	12/0
2	8	20/1
3	14	34/1
4	11	45/1
5	10	55/1
6	12	67/1
7	6	73/1
8	19	92/1
9	20	112/1
10	7	119/2
11	11	130/2
12	15	145/2
13	15	160/2
14	7	167/3
15	10	177/3
16	13	190/4
17	15	205/4
18	12	217/5
19	20	237/6
20	16	253/7

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