IndonesiaversusPhilippines

8 May 2026 · T20

Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 11 runs

Indonesia20.0 overs132/9 Philippines20.0 overs121/6 Sano International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Philippines more likely to win

23%Indonesia77%Philippines

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Philippines rate stronger than Indonesia (1,494 vs 1,365 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Philippines won 8 and Indonesia won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 21%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Philippines is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 12% to 98% during the match (Philippines: 2% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.4: DJ Hawoe to N Tanner, A Donovan out. Indonesia up from 36% to 51%.
2nd inns 15.2: IK Gamantika to N Tanner, N Tanner out. Indonesia up from 56% to 72%.
2nd inns 18.5: F Banunaek to HER Tyler, ASF Sirah out. Indonesia up from 75% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia132/9 Philippines121/6

Innings 1

Indonesia

132/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Indonesia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Gede Priandanarun out · Kulwinderjeet Singh, Henry Tyler · J Tuffin 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kulwinderjeet Singh, Henry Tyler	0	2	0	0	0.00
Sudhakar Jegannathancaught · Kulwinderjeet Singh · ASF Sirah 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kulwinderjeet Singh · b ASF Sirah	11	17	2	0	64.71
Kavin Chaddhacaught · Henry Tyler · Huzaifa Mohammed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Henry Tyler · b Huzaifa Mohammed	1	6	0	0	16.67
Gaurav Tiwaricaught · G Chohan · J Tuffin 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · G Chohan · b J Tuffin	42	49	4	1	85.71
Kadek Gamantikacaught · CJ Stamp · ASF Sirah 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · CJ Stamp · b ASF Sirah	45	35	5

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
J Tuffin0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	2	0
Huzaifa Mohammed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	9	1	2.25	1	0
JEA Doctora0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	0	9.50	1	0
N Tanner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	0	0
ASF Sirah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	1	0
Daniel Smith0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	17	0	17.00	5	1
G Chohan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	1	7/2
3	10	17/2
4	1	18/2
5	14	32/2
6	3	35/2
7	5	40/2
8	1	41/3
9	7	48/3
10	3	51/3
11	11	62/3
12	2	64/3
13	18	82/3
14	5	87/3
15	10	97/3
16	5	102/3
17	11	113/3
18	11	124/4
19	3	127/7
20	5	132/9

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