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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
8 Feb 2026 · T20
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 63%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 13% to 83% during the match (Nepal: 17% to 87%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Sandeep Lamichhane · Sher Malla0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sandeep Lamichhane · b Sher Malla | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Aasif Sheikh · Nandan Yadav5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Nandan Yadav | 26 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 152.94 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Lokesh Bam · Dipendra Singh Airee 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Lokesh Bam · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 55 | 35 | 4 | 4 | 157.14 |
| Tom Bantonlbw · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| caught · Sher Malla · b Nandan Yadav |
| 53 |
| 32 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 165.63 |
 Sam Curranbowled · Dipendra Singh Airee0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Will Jacksnot out1 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 39* | 18 | 1 | 4 | 216.67 |
|---|
 Jofra Archerrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Karan KC · Karan KC0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, Karan KC | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Liam Dawsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 11.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sher Malla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 11.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 7.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 8.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-5 (Philip Salt, 1.1) · 2-43 (Jos Buttler, 4.3) · 3-57 (Tom Banton, 6.1) · 4-128 (Jacob Bethell, 13.4) · 5-137 (Sam Curran, 15.3) · 6-157 (Harry Brook, 18.2) · 7-178 (Jofra Archer, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 19/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 28/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 39/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 44/2 |
| 6 | 13 | 57/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 64/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 73/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 76/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 92/3 |
| 12 | 14 | 106/3 |
| 13 | 14 | 120/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 128/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 134/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 138/5 |
| 17 | 1 | 139/5 |
| 18 | 12 | 151/5 |
| 19 | 12 | 163/6 |
| 20 | 21 | 184/7 |
Luke Wood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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