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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier B · 2026/27 · Men
8 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Maldives more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
China started on 37%; China batted first.
China's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Maldives: 63% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Du Jianhaobowled · Harsha Amarasinghe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Harsha Amarasinghe | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Du Jianyaolbw · Azyan Farhath 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Azyan Farhath | 12 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Yang Wangjiecaught · Sheraz Iqbal · Azyan Farhath 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sheraz Iqbal · b Azyan Farhath | 10 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Zong Yuechaobowled · Umar Adam 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Umar Adam | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Tian Sen Qunrun out · Harsha Amarasinghe · Azyan Farhath 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harsha Amarasinghe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ma Qiancheng |
| lbw · b Azyan Farhath |
| 7 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 87.50 |
| Chen Zhuo Yuecaught · Azyan Farhath · Ibrahim Rizan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Azyan Farhath · b Ibrahim Rizan | 13 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 76.47 |
|---|
| Shenjian Zhengcaught · Ameel Mauroof · T Kavinda 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ameel Mauroof · b T Kavinda | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Deng Jinqicaught · Harsha Amarasinghe · T Kavinda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harsha Amarasinghe · b T Kavinda | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Liu Qingzenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Yao Juntingcaught · Mohamed Rishwan · Ibrahim Rizan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohamed Rishwan · b Ibrahim Rizan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 16 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harsha Amarasinghe1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheraz Iqbal0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 7 | 0 |
| Azyan Farhath0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 8.25 | 6 | 1 |
| Umar Adam1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
| T Kavinda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Rizan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Du Jianhao, 1.0) · 2-23 (Yang Wangjie, 5.1) · 3-48 (Du Jianyao, 9.5) · 4-53 (Tian Sen Qun, 10.0) · 5-53 (Zong Yuechao, 10.1) · 6-72 (Ma Qiancheng, 11.5) · 7-94 (Shenjian Zheng, 15.4) · 8-94 (Deng Jinqi, 16.0) · 9-96 (Chen Zhuo Yue, 16.2) · 10-96 (Yao Junting, 16.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 30/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 36/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 42/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 53/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 61/5 |
| 12 | 13 | 74/6 |
| 13 | 4 | 78/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 83/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 88/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 94/8 |
| 17 | 2 | 96/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.