NamibiaversusZimbabwe

18 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 28 runs

Namibia20.0 overs204/7 Zimbabwe19.5 overs176/10 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

33%Namibia67%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Namibia (1,541 vs 1,483 on our results rating)
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 6 and Namibia won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 33%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 66%).

Biggest swings

9.4: SC Williams to MG Erasmus, JJ Smit out. Zimbabwe up from 32% to 39%.
12.5: Sikandar Raza to MG Erasmus, MG Erasmus out. Zimbabwe up from 38% to 46%.
2nd inns 0.4: MG Erasmus to T Marumani, T Marumani out. Namibia up from 73% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia204/7 Zimbabwe176/10

Innings 1

Namibia

204/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Jan Frylinckcaught · Brendan Taylor · Sikandar Raza 8 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Brendan Taylor · b Sikandar Raza	77	31	8	6	248.39
Louren Steenkampcaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Tinotenda Maposa 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Tinotenda Maposa	14	14	1	0	100.00
Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Tinotenda Maposa · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tinotenda Maposa · b Sikandar Raza	14	22	0	0	63.64
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonbowled · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sikandar Raza	1	2	0	0	50.00
JJ Smitrun out · Tashinga Musekiwa · Sean Williams 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Tashinga Musekiwa	1	1	0	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	1	9.33	0	0
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	48	1	12.00	1	0
Sean Williams0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	0	8.33	3	0
Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	37	0	18.50	0	0
Tinotenda Maposa0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	3	1
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	3	6.25	3	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/0
2	19	35/0
3	9	44/0
4	26	70/0
5	4	74/1
6	11	85/1
7	3	88/1
8	5	93/1
9	11	104/3
10	5	109/4
11	6	115/4
12	3	118/4
13	5	123/5
14	11	134/5
15	10	144/6
16	10	154/6
17	7	161/6
18	11	172/6
19	23	195/6
20	9	204/7

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