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Photo: CAPTAIN RAJU
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of Bangladesh · 2023/24 · Men
13 Mar 2024 · ODI
Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 47%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Soumya Sarkar · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 36 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 128.57 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 33 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Taskin Ahmed 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Taskin Ahmed | 59 | 75 | 5 | 1 | 78.67 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramacaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Charith Asalankabowled · Mehedi Hasan 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mehedi Hasan | 18 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (Bangladesh: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 37 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 48.65 |
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Shariful Islam3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Shariful Islam | 67 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 97.10 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Taskin Ahmed1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Taskin Ahmed | 13 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 92.86 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Litton Das · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Taskin Ahmed | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Pramod Madushancaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Shariful Islam 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Shariful Islam | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumaranot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Dilshan Madushankacaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Shariful Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Shariful Islam | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shariful Islam1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 51 | 3 | 5.19 | 2 | 0 |
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 60 | 3 | 6.00 | 5 | 0 |
 Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 44 | 3 | 5.08 | 1 | 0 |
 Taijul Islam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 4.71 | 0 | 0 |
1-71 (Avishka Fernando, 9.5) · 2-72 (Pathum Nissanka, 11.1) · 3-84 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 13.1) · 4-128 (Charith Asalanka, 25.2) · 5-197 (Kusal Mendis, 36.4) · 6-221 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 40.4) · 7-225 (Mahesh Theekshana, 42.4) · 8-244 (Janith Liyanage, 46.1) · 9-255 (Pramod Madushan, 48.2) · 10-255 (Dilshan Madushanka, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 41/0 |
| 7 | 11 | 52/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 61/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 68/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 71/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 72/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 13 | 10 | 84/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 88/3 |
| 15 | 0 | 88/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 92/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 93/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 95/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 102/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 103/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 110/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 117/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 120/3 |
| 24 | 0 | 120/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 127/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 130/4 |
| 27 | 10 | 140/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 142/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 146/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 151/4 |
| 31 | 10 | 161/4 |
| 32 | 6 | 167/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 174/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 177/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 186/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 193/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 199/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 204/5 |
| 39 | 11 | 215/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 220/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 223/6 |
| 42 | 1 | 224/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 225/7 |
| 44 | 5 | 230/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 238/7 |
| 46 | 6 | 244/7 |
| 47 | 5 | 249/8 |
| 48 | 5 | 254/8 |
| 49 | 1 | 255/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Mahmudullah: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taijul Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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