Royal Challengers BengaluruversusGujarat Giants

16 Jan 2026 · T20

Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 32 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs182/7 Gujarat Giants18.5 overs150/10 Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 47%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Gujarat Giants is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Gujarat Giants: 0% to 78%).

Biggest swings

5.3: SFM Devine to GJ Naik, GJ Naik out. Gujarat Giants up from 65% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.4: A Reddy to SFM Devine, SFM Devine out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 49% to 61%.
2nd inns 4.6: SR Patil to BL Mooney, BL Mooney out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 65% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru182/7 Gujarat Giants150/10

Innings 1