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Portugal tour of Sweden · 2026 · Men
1 Jul 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Sweden more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 40%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 38% to 99% during the match (Sweden: 1% to 62%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Norotamcaught · A Mundra · Zain Muzaffar 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Mundra · b Zain Muzaffar | 29 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 138.10 |
| SP Gomescaught · Imal Zuwak · Samiullah Rahmani 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Imal Zuwak · b Samiullah Rahmani | 20 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 95.24 |
| C Potgietercaught · W Boshoff · Samiullah Rahmani 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · W Boshoff · b Samiullah Rahmani | 10 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 71.43 |
| Natim Hassambowled · Zabiullah Zahid 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zabiullah Zahid | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
| JP Nettocaught · Saeed Ahmed (2) · A Dhabe 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saeed Ahmed (2) · b A Dhabe | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 140.00 |
| run out · Zaid Ahmad, Zain Muzaffar |
| 67 |
| 30 |
| 5 |
| 4 |
| 223.33 |
| Edward Flemingrun out · Zabiullah Zahid · Zabiullah Zahid 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Zabiullah Zahid | 15 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 93.75 |
|---|
| Sebastian de Oliveiralbw · Zain Muzaffar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zain Muzaffar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| R Hashunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Sirajullah Khadimnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zabiullah Zahid0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Zain Muzaffar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Dhabe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaid Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Samiullah Rahmani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-43 (D Norotam, 5.2) · 2-64 (SP Gomes, 9.1) · 3-65 (C Potgieter, 9.3) · 4-72 (JP Netto, 10.2) · 5-96 (Natim Hassam, 13.3) · 6-130 (Edward Fleming, 17.5) · 7-165 (C Nunes, 19.4) · 8-165 (Sebastian de Oliveira, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 42/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 48/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 54/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 72/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 75/4 |
| 12 | 8 | 83/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 91/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 96/5 |
| 15 | 7 | 103/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 109/5 |
| 17 | 13 | 122/5 |
| 18 | 9 | 131/6 |
| 19 | 19 | 150/6 |
| 20 | 19 | 169/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.