Chennai Super KingsversusGujarat Titans

25 May 2025 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chennai Super Kings won by 83 runs

Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs230/5 Gujarat Titans18.3 overs147/10 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chennai Super Kings started on 32%; Chennai Super Kings batted first.

Chennai Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Gujarat Titans is the rest

Chennai Super Kings's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Gujarat Titans: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

3.4: M Prasidh Krishna to A Mhatre, A Mhatre out. Gujarat Titans up from 43% to 55%.
2nd inns 2.3: A Kamboj to Shubman Gill, Shubman Gill out. Chennai Super Kings up from 67% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.4: KK Ahmed to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. Chennai Super Kings up from 79% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chennai Super Kings230/5 Gujarat Titans147/10

Innings 1