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Photo: Amuzujoe
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Women's African Games · 2023/24 · Women
8 Mar 2024 · T20
Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Tanzania started on 48%; Tanzania batted first.
Tanzania's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (South Africa: 50% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Mtaecaught and bowled · Leah Jones 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Leah Jones | 9 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 52.94 |
| PZ Kamunyalbw · Leah Jones 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Leah Jones | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| NJ Piuscaught and bowled · Annerie Dercksen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Annerie Dercksen | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
| HM Omarystumped · Karabo Meso · G Jafta 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Karabo Meso · b G Jafta | 9 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| AS Qwelebowled · Annerie Dercksen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annerie Dercksen | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| MA Swedy |
| caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Nondumiso Shangase |
| 9 |
| 18 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| A Mohamedlbw · Nondumiso Shangase 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nondumiso Shangase | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| TS Omarycaught · Karabo Meso · Nondumiso Shangase 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karabo Meso · b Nondumiso Shangase | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| SF Jeromenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| SD Husseinlbw · Nondumiso Shangase 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nondumiso Shangase | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| MH Ushangacaught · Leah Jones · Nondumiso Shangase 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Leah Jones · b Nondumiso Shangase | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Winster0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Leah Jones0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Seshnie Naidu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| K Reyneke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| G Jafta0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 3.71 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (PZ Kamunya, 3.2) · 2-17 (S Mtae, 5.3) · 3-23 (NJ Pius, 6.4) · 4-29 (AS Qwele, 8.4) · 5-43 (MA Swedy, 12.3) · 6-46 (HM Omary, 13.0) · 7-52 (A Mohamed, 14.2) · 8-57 (TS Omary, 16.2) · 9-57 (SD Hussein, 16.4) · 10-66 (MH Ushanga, 18.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 17/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 24/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 28/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 29/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 32/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 38/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 42/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 45/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 51/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 55/7 |
| 16 | 0 | 55/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 58/9 |
| 18 | 4 | 62/9 |
| 19 | 4 | 66/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.