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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
8 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bermuda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Panama started on 16%; Panama batted first.
Panama's chances ranged from 0% to 17% during the match (Bermuda: 83% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YI Kachhaliabowled · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zeko Burgess | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Breeze Ahirrun out · D Sabir, Sinclair Smith · J Proctor 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · D Sabir, Sinclair Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Irfan Hafejeerun out · Dion Stovell · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dion Stovell | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| A Natubhai Ahircaught · Zeko Burgess · Kevon Fubler 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Zeko Burgess · b Kevon Fubler | 27 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 55.10 |
| Yusuf Ebrahimcaught · Terryn Fray · Kevon Fubler 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Terryn Fray · b Kevon Fubler | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| caught · D Sabir · b Derrick Brangman |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Mahmud Jasatcaught · Tre Manders · D Sabir 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tre Manders · b D Sabir | 18 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Khandubhai Ahirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| AM Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Proctor1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeko Burgess0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Derrick Brangman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevon Fubler0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonte Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| D Sabir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Breeze Ahir, 0.2) · 2-3 (Irfan Hafejee, 1.3) · 3-14 (YI Kachhalia, 6.0) · 4-16 (Yusuf Ebrahim, 7.1) · 5-19 (RDB Ahir, 8.2) · 6-54 (Mahmud Jasat, 17.0) · 7-54 (A Natubhai Ahir, 17.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/2 |
| 3 | 0 | 4/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 6/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 12/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 14/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 16/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 18/4 |
| 9 | 2 | 20/5 |
| 10 | 8 | 28/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 31/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 35/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 37/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 39/5 |
| 15 | 10 | 49/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 52/5 |
| 17 | 2 | 54/6 |
| 18 | 1 | 55/7 |
| 19 | 2 | 57/7 |
| 20 | 3 | 60/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.