Royal Challengers BengaluruversusDelhi Capitals

12 May 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 47 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs187/9 Delhi Capitals19.1 overs140/10 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 49%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Delhi Capitals is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Delhi Capitals: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: Yash Dayal to SD Hope, J Fraser-McGurk out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 68% to 85%.
2nd inns 3.3: Mohammed Siraj to Kumar Kushagra, Kumar Kushagra out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 80% to 94%.
2nd inns 9.3: LH Ferguson to SD Hope, SD Hope out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 71% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru187/9 Delhi Capitals140/10

Innings 1