San Francisco UnicornsversusMI New York

23 Jun 2025 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 47 runs

San Francisco Unicorns20.0 overs246/4 MI New York20.0 overs199/6 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

San Francisco Unicorns started on 59%; San Francisco Unicorns batted first.

San Francisco Unicorns’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

San Francisco Unicorns's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (MI New York: 0% to 42%).

Biggest swings

3.1: NP Kenjige to MW Short, six by MW Short. San Francisco Unicorns up from 73% to 77%.
8.2: NP Kenjige to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. MI New York up from 13% to 18%.
2nd inns 9.3: LE Plunkett to MD Patel, MD Patel out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 72% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

San Francisco Unicorns246/4 MI New York199/6

Innings 1