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ICC Women's T20I Challenge Trophy · 2026 · Women
18 Apr 2026 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 52%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Kambalapallicaught · R Chaudhary · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Chaudhary · b M Upadhayay | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| CR Pagydyalacaught · Kabita Joshi · Riya Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kabita Joshi · b Riya Sharma | 30 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 81.08 |
| Isani Vaghelabowled · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Upadhayay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Pooja Ganeshrun out · K Kunwar, Kabita Joshi · K Kunwar 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · K Kunwar, Kabita Joshi | 47 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 95.92 |
| Gargi Bhoglebowled · K Kunwar 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Kunwar | 34 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 125.93 |
| run out · I Barma |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| AI Chudasamanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| T Chopranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Upadhayay0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| K Kunwar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Puja Mahato0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Riya Sharma0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
| R Chaudhary0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Kabita Joshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (S Kambalapalli, 0.3) · 2-2 (Isani Vaghela, 0.4) · 3-77 (CR Pagydyala, 13.1) · 4-121 (Pooja Ganesh, 19.1) · 5-122 (Ritu Singh, 19.4) · 6-122 (Gargi Bhogle, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 19/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 23/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 28/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 38/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 50/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 59/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 69/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 77/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 85/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 93/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 98/3 |
| 18 | 10 | 108/3 |
| 19 | 12 | 120/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 123/6 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
