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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
20 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Sweden more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sweden started on 60%; Sweden batted first.
Sweden's chances ranged from 0% to 83% during the match (Malta: 17% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imal Zuwakcaught · Flynn Zahra · Mehboob Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Flynn Zahra · b Mehboob Ali | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
| A Mundracaught · SB Patel · Muhammad Ajmal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · SB Patel · b Muhammad Ajmal | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Saeed Ahmed (2)caught · Mohammed Qasim · Mehboob Ali 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammed Qasim · b Mehboob Ali | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 212.50 |
| Awais Ahmadbowled · Jaswinder Singh 5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jaswinder Singh | 36 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 128.57 |
| YS Chauhancaught · Flynn Zahra · Imran Ameer 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Flynn Zahra · b Imran Ameer | 34 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 125.93 |
| run out · Mehboob Ali |
| 40 |
| 26 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 153.85 |
| Samiullah Rahmanirun out · Flynn Zahra, Jaswinder Singh · P Pushparajan 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Flynn Zahra, Jaswinder Singh | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 137.50 |
|---|
| DB Lakhanistumped · Flynn Zahra · Imran Ameer 0 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Flynn Zahra · b Imran Ameer | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Zabiullah Zahidnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 7 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Ajmal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Mehboob Ali0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 2 | 1 |
| Mohammed Qasim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Ajin Soman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Imran Ameer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaswinder Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 14.50 | 3 | 0 |
| P Pushparajan0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-12 (A Mundra, 2.2) · 2-19 (Imal Zuwak, 3.2) · 3-47 (Saeed Ahmed (2), 5.5) · 4-89 (Awais Ahmad, 11.2) · 5-136 (YS Chauhan, 16.1) · 6-154 (Samiullah Rahmani, 17.4) · 7-171 (DB Lakhani, 18.5) · 8-181 (W Boshoff, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 28/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 15 | 50/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 52/3 |
| 8 | 13 | 65/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 67/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 80/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 88/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 98/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 14 | 19 | 119/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 127/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 136/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 145/5 |
| 18 | 14 | 159/6 |
| 19 | 14 | 173/7 |
| 20 | 8 | 181/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.