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Sri Lanka Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
16 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 40%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Leah Paul · Arlene Kelly 9 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Leah Paul · b Arlene Kelly | 101 | 98 | 9 | 3 | 103.06 |
 Chamari Atapattucaught · Amy Hunter · Orla Prendergast0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b Orla Prendergast | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Harshitha Madavibowled · Alana Dalzell4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alana Dalzell | 19 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 67.86 |
 Hasini Pereracaught · Orla Prendergast · Alana Dalzell1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Alana Dalzell |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 8% to 84% during the match (Ireland: 16% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 46 |
| 72 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 63.89 |
 Kavisha Dilharicaught · Jane Maguire · A Tector1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b A Tector | 16 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
 Nilakshi de Silvacaught · Sarah Forbes · Arlene Kelly1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Forbes · b Arlene Kelly | 13 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 65.00 |
|---|
 Anushka Sanjeewanicaught · Gaby Lewis · Orla Prendergast1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gaby Lewis · b Orla Prendergast | 17 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 77.27 |
|---|
| Sachini Nisansalanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 18 | 1 | 0 | 94.44 |
|---|
 Sugandika Kumaricaught and bowled · Orla Prendergast3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Orla Prendergast | 18 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 138.46 |
|---|
 Achini Kulasuriyanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 3.13 | 3 | 0 |
| Alana Dalzell1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 4.63 | 2 | 0 |
| A Tector0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 6.13 | 1 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 5.71 | 1 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| FA Sargent0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 6.40 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Chamari Atapattu, 0.4) · 2-35 (Harshitha Madavi, 8.0) · 3-157 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 30.2) · 4-186 (Kavisha Dilhari, 36.2) · 5-191 (Hasini Perera, 37.1) · 6-216 (Nilakshi de Silva, 42.4) · 7-223 (Anushka Sanjeewani, 44.5) · 8-254 (Sugandika Kumari, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 35/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 49/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 52/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 53/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 58/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 16 | 9 | 69/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 74/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 81/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 84/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 89/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 91/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 96/2 |
| 23 | 11 | 107/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 111/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 112/2 |
| 26 | 12 | 124/2 |
| 27 | 8 | 132/2 |
| 28 | 7 | 139/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 145/2 |
| 30 | 8 | 153/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 157/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 163/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 167/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 172/3 |
| 35 | 6 | 178/3 |
| 36 | 8 | 186/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 191/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 194/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 198/5 |
| 40 | 0 | 198/5 |
| 41 | 9 | 207/5 |
| 42 | 8 | 215/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 217/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 221/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 224/7 |
| 46 | 8 | 232/7 |
| 47 | 11 | 243/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 248/7 |
| 49 | 7 | 255/8 |
| 50 | 5 | 260/8 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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