Adelaide StrikersversusHobart Hurricanes

18 Nov 2025 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 4 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs134/7 Hobart Hurricanes19.4 overs136/6 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 45%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 9% to 48% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 53% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.2: ML Schutt to H Silver-holmes, 0 runs to H Silver-holmes. Adelaide Strikers up from 34% to 48%.
2nd inns 19.3: ML Schutt to H Silver-holmes, four by H Silver-holmes. Hobart Hurricanes up from 52% to 83%.
2nd inns 19.4: ML Schutt to H Silver-holmes, four by H Silver-holmes. Hobart Hurricanes up from 83% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers134/7 Hobart Hurricanes136/6

Innings 1