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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
23 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 85%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (Gambia: 0% to 15%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Ismaila Tanba · Andre Jarju 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ismaila Tanba · b Andre Jarju | 50 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 192.31 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanibowled · Andre Jarju 9 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Andre Jarju | 62 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 326.32 |
| Dion Myerscaught · Ismaila Tanba · AM Rajpurohit 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ismaila Tanba · b AM Rajpurohit | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240.00 |
 Sikandar Razanot out7 fours · 15 sixes | not out | 133* | 43 | 7 | 15 | 309.30 |
| Ryan Burlcaught · Andre Jarju · Abubacarr Kuyateh 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Andre Jarju · b Abubacarr Kuyateh |
| 11 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 227.27 |
 Clive Madandenot out3 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 53* | 17 | 3 | 5 | 311.76 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abubacarr Kuyateh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 14.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Musa Jobarteh0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 93 | 0 | 23.25 | 2 | 1 |
| AM Rajpurohit0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 17.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Andre Jarju0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 13.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Asim Ashraf0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 16.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Ismaila Tanba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 24.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-98 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 5.4) · 2-115 (Dion Myers, 7.0) · 3-143 (Brian Bennett, 9.2) · 4-203 (Ryan Burl, 13.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 24 | 49/0 |
| 4 | 19 | 68/0 |
| 5 | 24 | 92/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 103/1 |
| 7 | 12 | 115/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 125/2 |
| 9 | 16 | 141/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 150/3 |
| 11 | 12 | 162/3 |
| 12 | 23 | 185/3 |
| 13 | 16 | 201/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 210/4 |
| 15 | 18 | 228/4 |
| 16 | 14 | 242/4 |
| 17 | 35 | 277/4 |
| 18 | 24 | 301/4 |
| 19 | 18 | 319/4 |
| 20 | 25 | 344/4 |
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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