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Jersey tour of Guernsey · 2024 · Men
22 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Guernsey started on 49%; Guernsey batted first.
Guernsey's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (Jersey: 43% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Fitchetcaught · Benjamin Ward · Julius Sumerauer 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Benjamin Ward · b Julius Sumerauer | 12 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 109.09 |
| A Martelcaught · Jonty Jenner · Charles Perchard 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jonty Jenner · b Charles Perchard | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 122.22 |
| Tom Nightingalecaught · Jonty Jenner · Julius Sumerauer 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jonty Jenner · b Julius Sumerauer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matthew Stokescaught · Benjamin Ward · Daniel Birrell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Benjamin Ward · b Daniel Birrell | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Isaac Damarellcaught · Benjamin Ward · Daniel Birrell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Benjamin Ward · b Daniel Birrell | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Oliver Nightingalecaught · S Simpson · Benjamin Ward 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Simpson · b Benjamin Ward | 14 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 93.33 |
|---|
| M Dale-Bradleycaught · Harrison Carlyon · Daniel Birrell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harrison Carlyon · b Daniel Birrell | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Ben Ferbrachestumped · J Kemp · Benjamin Ward 4 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · J Kemp · b Benjamin Ward | 34 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 125.93 |
|---|
| LT Bichardnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 25* | 25 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| C Forshawlbw · Charles Perchard 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Charles Perchard | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 109.09 |
|---|
| Harry Johnsoncaught · Zak Tribe · Charles Perchard 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Tribe · b Charles Perchard | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Sumerauer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Birrell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 8.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Greenwood0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 7 | 0 |
| Charles Perchard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Ward0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Zak Tribe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Ben Fitchet, 2.1) · 2-17 (Tom Nightingale, 2.2) · 3-31 (Matthew Stokes, 4.3) · 4-31 (Isaac Damarell, 4.4) · 5-37 (A Martel, 5.2) · 6-48 (M Dale-Bradley, 7.0) · 7-67 (Oliver Nightingale, 10.4) · 8-109 (Ben Ferbrache, 16.2) · 9-132 (C Forshaw, 19.1) · 10-134 (Harry Johnson, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 21/2 |
| 4 | 9 | 30/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 35/4 |
| 6 | 5 | 40/5 |
| 7 | 8 | 48/6 |
| 8 | 5 | 53/6 |
| 9 | 5 | 58/6 |
| 10 | 3 | 61/6 |
| 11 | 7 | 68/7 |
| 12 | 8 | 76/7 |
| 13 | 10 | 86/7 |
| 14 | 7 | 93/7 |
| 15 | 6 | 99/7 |
| 16 | 10 | 109/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 112/8 |
| 18 | 13 | 125/8 |
| 19 | 7 | 132/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 134/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.