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Netherlands Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
5 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 45%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 1% to 48% during the match (Netherlands: 52% to 99%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naoani Varestumped · Babette de Leede · Caroline de Lange 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Babette de Leede · b Caroline de Lange | 21 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 48.84 |
| Brenda Taubowled · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Iris Zwilling | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Tanya Rumalbw · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Iris Zwilling | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sibona Jimmycaught · Iris Zwilling · Hannah Landheer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iris Zwilling · b Hannah Landheer | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Pauke Siakacaught · Eva Lynch · Caroline de Lange 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Eva Lynch · b Caroline de Lange | 26 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 70.27 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| K Franklbw · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| lbw · b Silver Siegers |
| 5 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 45.45 |
| Vicky Araacaught · Caroline de Lange · Iris Zwilling 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Caroline de Lange · b Iris Zwilling | 16 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| HJ Thomasbowled · Hannah Landheer 6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hannah Landheer | 30 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 93.75 |
|---|
| Isabel Touarun out · Robine Rijke · Hannah Landheer 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Robine Rijke | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 35.29 |
|---|
| Geua Tombowled · Hannah Landheer 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hannah Landheer | 14 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| V Burukanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling3 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 2.90 | 2 | 0 |
| Hannah Landheer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 2.74 | 2 | 0 |
| Eva Lynch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 4.86 | 3 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
1-7 (Brenda Tau, 4.3) · 2-7 (Tanya Ruma, 5.0) · 3-15 (Sibona Jimmy, 7.3) · 4-40 (Naoani Vare, 14.4) · 5-68 (Pauke Siaka, 18.5) · 6-72 (K Frank, 19.1) · 7-128 (HJ Thomas, 28.0) · 8-128 (Vicky Araa, 28.2) · 9-144 (Isabel Toua, 34.0) · 10-148 (Geua Tom, 35.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 7/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 8/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 14/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 18/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 21/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 24/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 29/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 35/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 36/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 42/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 49/4 |
| 17 | 10 | 59/4 |
| 18 | 8 | 67/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 72/5 |
| 20 | 10 | 82/6 |
| 21 | 1 | 83/6 |
| 22 | 9 | 92/6 |
| 23 | 6 | 98/6 |
| 24 | 1 | 99/6 |
| 25 | 5 | 104/6 |
| 26 | 9 | 113/6 |
| 27 | 8 | 121/6 |
| 28 | 7 | 128/7 |
| 29 | 1 | 129/8 |
| 30 | 4 | 133/8 |
| 31 | 0 | 133/8 |
| 32 | 3 | 136/8 |
| 33 | 3 | 139/8 |
| 34 | 5 | 144/9 |
| 35 | 4 | 148/9 |
| 36 | 0 | 148/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.