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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
25 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 62%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught and bowled · Roelof van der Merwe8 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Roelof van der Merwe | 66 | 93 | 8 | 0 | 70.97 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Bas de Leede · Vivian Kingma 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Bas de Leede · b Vivian Kingma | 17 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 62.96 |
| Anil Sahbowled · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Vivian Kingma | 7 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 63.64 |
 Kushal Mallalbw · Aryan Dutt0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aryan Dutt | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 77% during the match (Netherlands: 23% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Noah Croes · b Aryan Dutt |
| 16 |
| 40 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireerun out · Bas de Leede · Bas de Leede0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Bas de Leede | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
|---|
| B Sharkibowled · Bas de Leede 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Bas de Leede | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Aarif Sheikhcaught · Max O'Dowd · Vivian Kingma1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Max O'Dowd · b Vivian Kingma | 22 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 44.00 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · Aryan Dutt0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · b Aryan Dutt | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 29.41 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · Bas de Leede1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sybrand Engelbrecht · b Bas de Leede | 26 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 96.30 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 3.90 | 5 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 2.30 | 0 | 0 |
| Vikramjit Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 1.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Max O'Dowd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 3.05 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Levitt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 5.17 | 0 | 0 |
1-42 (Aasif Sheikh, 8.3) · 2-50 (Anil Sah, 11.0) · 3-54 (Kushal Malla, 13.0) · 4-87 (Rohit Kumar, 24.3) · 5-93 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 27.4) · 6-94 (B Sharki, 29.3) · 7-122 (Kushal Bhurtel, 36.3) · 8-135 (Gulsan Jha, 42.2) · 9-171 (Aarif Sheikh, 48.2) · 10-172 (Karan KC, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 25/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 28/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 41/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 42/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 44/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 54/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 58/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 61/3 |
| 16 | 10 | 71/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 73/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 76/3 |
| 20 | 0 | 76/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 77/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 79/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 84/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 87/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 90/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 92/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 93/5 |
| 29 | 0 | 93/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 96/6 |
| 31 | 5 | 101/6 |
| 32 | 1 | 102/6 |
| 33 | 6 | 108/6 |
| 34 | 2 | 110/6 |
| 35 | 4 | 114/6 |
| 36 | 7 | 121/6 |
| 37 | 1 | 122/7 |
| 38 | 3 | 125/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 126/7 |
| 40 | 4 | 130/7 |
| 41 | 2 | 132/7 |
| 42 | 3 | 135/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 135/8 |
| 44 | 7 | 142/8 |
| 45 | 2 | 144/8 |
| 46 | 3 | 147/8 |
| 47 | 8 | 155/8 |
| 48 | 16 | 171/8 |
| 49 | 1 | 172/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 172/10 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
