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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
11 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bahamas more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahamas started on 62%; Bahamas batted first.
Bahamas's chances ranged from 33% to 100% during the match (Panama: 0% to 67%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Taylorcaught · Mahmud Jasat · Irfan Hafejee 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahmud Jasat · b Irfan Hafejee | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| K Hindscaught · A Natubhai Ahir · Sanjay Kumar Ahir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Natubhai Ahir · b Sanjay Kumar Ahir | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| R Davsonstumped · Sohel Ebrahim Desai · RDB Ahir 5 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sohel Ebrahim Desai · b RDB Ahir | 30 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 142.86 |
| J Jemisoncaught and bowled · Irfan Hafejee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Irfan Hafejee | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Festus Bennrun out · P Jayeshbhai Patel, Sohel Ebrahim Desai · DK Dahyabhai Ahir 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · P Jayeshbhai Patel, Sohel Ebrahim Desai | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 28.57 |
| D Wheatleycaught · A Natubhai Ahir · RDB Ahir 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · A Natubhai Ahir · b RDB Ahir | 30 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 93.75 |
|---|
| DG Weakleystumped · Sohel Ebrahim Desai · A Natubhai Ahir 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sohel Ebrahim Desai · b A Natubhai Ahir | 20 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 68.97 |
|---|
| Rudolph Foxcaught · P Suman Bhai Ahir · Irfan Hafejee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Suman Bhai Ahir · b Irfan Hafejee | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Sandeep Goud (2)caught · Sohel Ebrahim Desai · A Natubhai Ahir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sohel Ebrahim Desai · b A Natubhai Ahir | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Antonio Harrisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| AR Nairrun out · Irfan Hafejee, P Suman Bhai Ahir · Irfan Hafejee 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Irfan Hafejee, P Suman Bhai Ahir | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanjay Kumar Ahir0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Irfan Hafejee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| DK Dahyabhai Ahir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| RDB Ahir1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| A Natubhai Ahir0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 5 | 0 |
| Yusuf Ebrahim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (K Hinds, 1.0) · 2-13 (Marc Taylor, 3.2) · 3-15 (J Jemison, 3.5) · 4-43 (Festus Benn, 7.0) · 5-45 (R Davson, 7.2) · 6-89 (D Wheatley, 16.0) · 7-106 (DG Weakley, 18.4) · 8-106 (Sandeep Goud (2), 19.0) · 9-106 (Rudolph Fox, 19.1) · 10-109 (AR Nair, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 15/3 |
| 5 | 7 | 22/3 |
| 6 | 16 | 38/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 43/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 46/5 |
| 9 | 4 | 50/5 |
| 10 | 11 | 61/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 64/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 67/5 |
| 13 | 7 | 74/5 |
| 14 | 9 | 83/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 89/5 |
| 16 | 0 | 89/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 93/6 |
| 18 | 8 | 101/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 106/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 109/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.