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Photo: Charles from Sandton, South Africa
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland Women tour of South Africa · 2025/26 · Women
19 Dec 2025 · ODI
Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 15%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (South Africa: 67% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbescaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Leah Jones 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Leah Jones | 8 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 36.36 |
| Gaby Lewisbowled · Nonkululeko Mlaba 8 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 64 | 80 | 8 | 1 | 80.00 |
| CE Coulter Reillystumped · Sinalo Jafta · Tumi Sekhukhune 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sinalo Jafta · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 37 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 66.07 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Leah Jones · Faye Tunnicliffe 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Leah Jones · b Faye Tunnicliffe | 21 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 75.00 |
| Laura Delanycaught · Suné Luus · Nonkululeko Mlaba 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Leah Paulcaught · Leah Jones · Suné Luus 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Leah Jones · b Suné Luus | 30 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 69.77 |
|---|
| Rebecca Stokellcaught · Suné Luus · Tumi Sekhukhune 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 16 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 76.19 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellycaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Nonkululeko Mlaba 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirestumped · Karabo Meso · Nonkululeko Mlaba 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Karabo Meso · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ava Canningnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Aimee Maguirecaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Suné Luus 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Suné Luus | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayanda Hlubi1 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 4.89 | 8 | 0 |
| Leah Jones0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.78 | 6 | 0 |
| Tumi Sekhukhune0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 3.38 | 0 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 33 | 4 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.2 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Faye Tunnicliffe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Sarah Forbes, 5.3) · 2-120 (CE Coulter Reilly, 26.0) · 3-120 (Gaby Lewis, 26.2) · 4-120 (Laura Delany, 27.0) · 5-154 (Orla Prendergast, 34.4) · 6-192 (Rebecca Stokell, 41.1) · 7-199 (Leah Paul, 44.0) · 8-199 (Arlene Kelly, 44.1) · 9-200 (Jane Maguire, 44.3) · 10-205 (Aimee Maguire, 45.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 27/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 43/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 46/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 52/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 62/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 68/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 71/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 76/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 82/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 88/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 94/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 96/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 103/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 108/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 109/1 |
| 25 | 8 | 117/1 |
| 26 | 3 | 120/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 120/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 121/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 123/4 |
| 30 | 8 | 131/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 133/4 |
| 32 | 8 | 141/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 145/4 |
| 34 | 6 | 151/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 155/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 161/5 |
| 37 | 14 | 175/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 178/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 182/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 189/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 192/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 195/6 |
| 43 | 2 | 197/6 |
| 44 | 2 | 199/7 |
| 45 | 5 | 204/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 205/10 |
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dane van Niekerk: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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