**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Pretoria CapitalsversusMI Cape Town

12 Jan 2026 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 53 runs

Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs185/6 MI Cape Town20.0 overs132/7 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pretoria Capitals started on 47%; Pretoria Capitals batted first.

Pretoria Capitals’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Pretoria Capitals's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (MI Cape Town: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2.2: GF Linde to SD Hope, SD Hope out. MI Cape Town up from 42% to 53%.
2nd inns 2.5: L Ngidi to HE van der Dussen, HE van der Dussen out. Pretoria Capitals up from 56% to 68%.
2nd inns 6.2: AD Russell to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Pretoria Capitals up from 71% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pretoria Capitals185/6 MI Cape Town132/7

Innings 1