New ZealandversusEngland

13 Jul 2024 · T20

The Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 7 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs103/8 England11.3 overs104/3 The Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

10%New Zealand90%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,769 vs 1,512 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 8 and New Zealand won 2
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 9%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 14% during the match (England: 86% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.1: S Glenn to GE Plimmer, GE Plimmer out. England up from 87% to 90%.
6.3: S Glenn to AC Kerr, AC Kerr out. England up from 90% to 93%.
7.4: DR Gibson to SFM Devine, SFM Devine out. England up from 92% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand103/8 England104/3

Innings 1

New Zealand

103/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Suzie Batesbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone	16	21	1	76.19
Georgia Plimmerbowled · Sarah Glenn 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sarah Glenn	17	21	1	80.95
Amelia Kerrcaught · Alice Capsey · Sarah Glenn 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alice Capsey · b Sarah Glenn	0	2	0	0.00
Sophie Devinebowled · Danielle Gibson 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Danielle Gibson	5	6	1

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	0
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	0
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00	0
Sarah Glenn0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	4	4.75	1
Danielle Gibson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	7	1	2.33	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	5	9/0
3	7	16/0
4	9	25/0
5	4	29/0
6	4	33/0
7	6	39/2
8	1	40/3
9	3	43/4
10	3	46/4
11	6	52/4
12	1	53/5
13	6	59/5
14	3	62/5
15	10	72/5
16	8	80/5
17	4	84/7
18	3	87/7
19	9	96/7
20	7	103/8

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