Mdina Cup · 2025 · Men

BelgiumversusPortugal

30 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Portugal won by 5 wickets

Belgium19.2 overs162/10 Portugal18.4 overs164/5 Stars Arena Hofstade, Zemst ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Portugal more likely to win

43%Belgium57%Portugal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Portugal rate stronger than Belgium (1,517 vs 1,466 on our results rating)
Belgium are playing at home in Belgium
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Portugal won 1 and Belgium won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Belgium started on 41%; Belgium batted first.

Belgium’s chance of winning (%) · Portugal is the rest

Belgium's chances ranged from 1% to 61% during the match (Portugal: 40% to 99%).

Biggest swings

6.1: U Shantu to Sheraz Sheikh, Sheraz Sheikh out. Portugal up from 56% to 69%.
7.5: JAM Henri to Omid Mailk Khel, Omid Mailk Khel out. Portugal up from 59% to 74%.
2nd inns 18.1: Murid Ekrami to R Hashu, six by R Hashu. Portugal up from 78% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Belgium162/10 Portugal164/5

Innings 1

Belgium

162/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Belgium batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muhammad Muneebcaught and bowled · S Vaz 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b S Vaz	0	7	0	0	0.00
A Razacaught · S Vaz · U Shantu 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · S Vaz · b U Shantu	11	6	1	1	183.33
B Niazrun out · R Hashu · U Shantu 1 fours · 2 sixes	run out · R Hashu	18	9	1	2	200.00
Omid Mailk Khelbowled · JAM Henri 4 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b JAM Henri	28	18	4	1	155.56
Sheraz Sheikhcaught · C Nunes · U Shantu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Nunes · b U Shantu	0	2	0	0	0.00
Shaheryar Buttcaught · R Hashu · F Stoman0 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
U Shantu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	3	0
S Vaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	30	1	15.00	2	0
JAM Henri0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	2	0
F Stoman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	8	2	2.67	1	0
R Hashu0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	25	3	7.50	5	0
H Khuttan0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	39	0	13.00	1	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	19	20/1
3	6	26/2
4	8	34/2
5	7	41/3
6	15	56/3
7	8	64/4
8	6	70/5
9	3	73/6
10	9	82/6
11	4	86/6
12	11	97/6
13	2	99/7
14	3	102/7
15	1	103/8
16	14	117/8
17	22	139/8
18	22	161/8
19	1	162/9
20	0	162/10

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