GibraltarversusBelgium

8 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Belgium won by 7 wickets

Gibraltar20.0 overs139/8 Belgium15.4 overs142/3 Koge Cricket Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Belgium more likely to win

18%Gibraltar82%Belgium

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Belgium rate stronger than Gibraltar (1,581 vs 1,358 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Belgium won 1 and Gibraltar won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gibraltar started on 16%; Gibraltar batted first.

Gibraltar’s chance of winning (%) · Belgium is the rest

Gibraltar's chances ranged from 0% to 34% during the match (Belgium: 66% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.4: Khalid Ahmadi to BA Pai, BA Pai out. Belgium up from 73% to 79%.
9.3: Khalid Ahmadi to KJ Stagno, KJ Stagno out. Belgium up from 67% to 73%.
2nd inns 1.5: BA Pai to A Raza, A Raza out. Gibraltar up from 11% to 17%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gibraltar139/8 Belgium142/3

Innings 1

Gibraltar

139/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Gibraltar batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
BA Paicaught · Saber Zakhil · Khalid Ahmadi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saber Zakhil · b Khalid Ahmadi	9	11	1	0	81.82
L Brucecaught · A Raza · Sajad Ahmadzai 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Raza · b Sajad Ahmadzai	6	5	1	0	120.00
KJ Stagnocaught · Khalid Ahmadi 5 fours · 4 sixes	caught · b Khalid Ahmadi	54	34	5	4	158.82
KJ Ferrarycaught · Zaki Ul Hassan · R Thapliyal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zaki Ul Hassan · b R Thapliyal	10	14	0	0	71.43
IDM Latinstumped · A Raza · Sheraz Sheikh 0 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · A Raza · b Sheraz Sheikh	18	20	0	1	90.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
R Thapliyal1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	21	1	5.25	0
Sajad Ahmadzai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	18	1	9.00	2
Zaki Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	2	7.50	0
Khalid Ahmadi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	3	4.75	2
Aziz Mohammad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	15	0	15.00	1
Saber Zakhil0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	0
Sheraz Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	1	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	8	12/1
3	12	24/1
4	10	34/1
5	13	47/1
6	5	52/2
7	6	58/2
8	6	64/2
9	15	79/2
10	5	84/3
11	4	88/3
12	0	88/4
13	7	95/4
14	5	100/4
15	7	107/4
16	10	117/5
17	5	122/5
18	7	129/5
19	5	134/6
20	5	139/8

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