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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier C · 2026 · Men
14 Aug 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 87%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (Israel: 0% to 21%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Norotambowled · SF Mangoda 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b SF Mangoda | 46 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 100.00 |
| Christopher De Freitascaught · AL Khunti · Elan Talker 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AL Khunti · b Elan Talker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Shekletoncaught · SF Mangoda · Yair Nagavkar 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · SF Mangoda · b Yair Nagavkar | 30 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 136.36 |
 Moisés Henriquesnot out4 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 66* | 39 | 4 | 4 | 169.23 |
| C Nunescaught and bowled · SF Mangoda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b SF Mangoda | 0 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| J Martinsnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 9 | 0 | 1 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elan Talker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Niv Nagavkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Yair Nagavkar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
| WSLK Narayana0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 7 | 0 |
| SF Mangoda0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| AL Khunti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 8.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Christopher De Freitas, 0.4) · 2-66 (Cameron Shekleton, 7.5) · 3-131 (D Norotam, 16.5) · 4-131 (C Nunes, 17.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 11 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 15 | 43/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 53/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 62/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 67/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 78/2 |
| 10 | 13 | 91/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 94/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 95/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 103/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 108/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 114/2 |
| 16 | 11 | 125/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 131/4 |
| 18 | 8 | 139/4 |
| 19 | 8 | 147/4 |
| 20 | 16 | 163/4 |
Moisés Henriques: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
