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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
6 Jun 2024 · T20
Kensington Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 73%; Namibia batted first.
Namibia's chances ranged from 1% to 77% during the match (Scotland: 23% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Pierre Kotzecaught · Brandon McMullen · Brad Wheal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Brad Wheal | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Niko Davincaught · Brad Currie · Chris Sole 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brad Currie · b Chris Sole | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 166.67 |
| Jan Frylinckbowled · Brad Currie 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Currie | 12 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Gerhard Erasmusstumped · Matty Cross · Michael Leask 5 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Matty Cross · b Michael Leask | 52 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 167.74 |
 Malan Krugercaught · Michael Jones · Chris Greaves0 fours · 0 sixes |
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
| Zane Greencaught · Michael Jones · Brad Wheal 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Michael Jones · b Brad Wheal | 28 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 103.70 |
|---|
 David Wiesecaught · Mark Watt · Brad Wheal0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mark Watt · b Brad Wheal | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 107.69 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmanncaught · Brad Wheal · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brad Wheal · b Brad Currie | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| JJ Smitrun out · Michael Jones, Brad Wheal · Brad Wheal 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Michael Jones, Brad Wheal | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtznot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Tangeni Lungameninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brad Wheal0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 8.25 | 2 | 1 |
| Brad Currie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Sole0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 1 | 1 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Greaves0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 0.3) · 2-19 (Jan Frylinck, 3.2) · 3-37 (Niko Davin, 4.5) · 4-55 (Malan Kruger, 7.3) · 5-106 (Gerhard Erasmus, 13.5) · 6-137 (David Wiese, 17.3) · 7-138 (Zane Green, 17.5) · 8-140 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 18.2) · 9-151 (JJ Smit, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 25/2 |
| 5 | 12 | 37/3 |
| 6 | 11 | 48/3 |
| 7 | 6 | 54/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 60/4 |
| 9 | 8 | 68/4 |
| 10 | 10 | 78/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 83/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 90/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 97/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 107/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 113/5 |
| 16 | 9 | 122/5 |
| 17 | 13 | 135/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 139/7 |
| 19 | 3 | 142/8 |
| 20 | 13 | 155/9 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brad Wheal: Dave Morton · Public domain
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Wiese: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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